In a new book, former oil geologist and government adviser on renewable energy, Dr. Jeremy Leggett, identifies five "global systemic risks directly connected to energy" which, he says, together "threaten capital markets and hence the global economy" in a way that could trigger a global crash sometime between 2015 and 2020.
According to Leggett, a wide range of experts and insiders "from diverse sectors spanning academia, industry, the military and the oil industry itself, including until recently the International Energy Agency or, at least, key individuals or factions therein" are expecting an oil crunch "within a few years," most likely "within a window from 2015 to 2020."
"A market shock involving any one these would be capable of triggering a tsunami of economic and social problems, and, of course, there is no law of economics that says only one can hit at one time."
"Growing numbers of financial experts are warning that failure to rein in the financial sector in the aftermath of the financial crash of 2008 makes a second crash almost inevitable."
"I am becoming sick and tired of lying about the extent of our reserves issues and the downward revisions that need to be done because of far too aggressive/ optimistic bookings."
"Shale-gas drilling has dropped off a cliff since 2009. It is only a matter of time now before US shale-gas production falls. This is not material to the timing of a global oil crisis."
"The presentation drew some gasps from the assembled energy cognoscenti. They predict a peaking of global supply in the face of high demand by as early as 2015. This will lead to a more regionalised oil market, a key role for West African producers, and continued high and volatile prices."
"Exploitation of unconventional oil will provide additional liquids, but in all probability only at increasingly higher costs, and it will depend on significant investments to develop appropriate technologies to convert today's resources into tomorrow's reserves. The exact timing of both the plateau and onset of irreversible decline will be influenced by the factors that determine long-term changes in supply and demand. Nevertheless, the challenge is coming, and this emerging world of limited conventional production will require major adjustments on the part of both consumers and producers."
"Its true that the short burst of shale gas and shale oil has taken a lot of 'peakists', myself included, somewhat by surprise, and that the oil peak has been pushed out in time a little by tight oil. What hasn't changed is the basic issue: most of the incumbency says the 'all-liquids' oil production peak is many years hence, the minority doubting the narrative says it is much nearer, within this decade. And lets not forget: conventional crude oil has already peaked, as even the IEA admits."
"In this report we updated the evidence that defines global oil reserves and extraction rates, and concluded that the global peak production rate for oil would likely occur within the decade, very likely by 2015 at the latest at a value no higher than 92 million barrels per day."
"It will never run out. Oil reserves under the ground, we tried to say, once again, are not the same as oil flows from production pipes at the surface."
"Picture the scene if most of the national energy eggs are put in that basket, infrastructure is capitalised, and then supplies of cheap gas fall far short of requirement, or even fail to materialise."
"Geological uncertainty, economic, geopolitical and environmental factors make it difficult to predict future oil reserves. The Government does not subscribe to a particular view on when oil production is likely to peak and at what level, although there is a recognition that it is inevitable that oil production will peak and then begin to decline. The Government is committed to a diverse energy mix and is investing in nuclear and renewables, which will ensure we have a secure supply of energy in the future. The lights will not go out."
".... if my suppositions are correct so far a big if the world faces either an oil shock by the end of 2015 and a financial crash soon after, or a second financial crash before then, followed by a delayed oil crash some years later."
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